Sorry, Ron Paul Fans, Romney Is No. 1

Don't believe everything you read, Ron Paul devotees: Your man isn't the Republican most likely to knock off President Obama in 2012. Nate Silver takes issue with a new Rasmussen poll to that effect, cites Rasmussen's "Republican-leaning house effect," and (while acknowledging the silliness at this early date) crunches his own numbers from several polls. His current leader of the pack: Mitt Romney.

In a one-to-one matchup against Obama, Romney falls just 5.6 points behind the president, Silver writes at FiveThirtyEight. He's followed by Mike Huckabee (6.6), Paul (9.9), Newt Gingrich (12.2), Jeb Bush (13.4), and Sarah Palin (14.4). The only candidate who actually comes out ahead of Obama is someone named "Generic Republican."