2010 a Toss-Up as Indies Flee the Dems

The sizable lead among registered voters Democrats have maintained since the 2006 midterm elections has eroded to almost nothing. In the latest Gallup poll, Dems have just a 2-point advantage over Republicans going into the 2010 midterms, 46% to 44%, well within the sampling error. That’s down from a 6-point lead in July, due mostly to a decrease in support from independents.

The erosion of independent support is particularly striking. Ahead of the presidential election, 46% went for Dems compared to 39% for GOP candidates. In July, the numbers were 42%-43%; in October, 36%-45%. If that trend isn’t enough to spook Democratic office seekers, Congress as a whole has a dismal 21% approval rating, usually a harbinger of significant losses for the majority party. Sub-30% approval numbers preceded both the GOP takeover in 1994 and the Democratic win in 2006. (More Gallup poll stories.)