Rising global heat is sending people indoors and off their feet—a move that could drive hundreds of thousands of premature deaths every year. A new study in The Lancet Global Health estimates that as the planet warms, reduced physical activity driven by higher temperatures could fuel 470,000 to 700,000 extra deaths a year by 2050 and cost billions in annual productivity losses. Researchers examined health surveys from 156 countries alongside temperature data from 2000 to 2022 and found that each additional month with average temps above 82 degrees Fahrenheit nudged global inactivity up by 1.4 percentage points, per ABC News. Some countries near the equator are expected to see inactivity climb more than 4 percentage points by 2050, per the Washington Post.
Tropical low- and middle-income countries, including parts of the Caribbean and sub-Saharan Africa, are projected to be hit hardest; in Somalia, deaths tied to heat-driven inactivity could climb to 70 per 100,000 people. People in wealthier nations tend to have better access to air conditioning and more ability to adapt their behavior, per the Post. Still, the US could see about 2.5 additional deaths per 100,000 by midcentury, according to the study.
About one-third of adults already don't get enough exercise, according to the World Health Organization, contributing to higher risks of heart disease and cancer. As temperatures continue to rise, women and older adults will be especially vulnerable, as it's more difficult for their bodies to cool down, lead author Christian García-Witulski tells ABC. He says the findings show heat is "changing behavioral patterns at scale." The team calls for cooler, activity-friendly urban design and better guidance on exercising safely in the heat—but stresses that the biggest lever remains cutting emissions to avoid what they describe as a heat-powered drift into sedentary life.
,
uBlock 
,
and
Ghostery 
)
