Voter Turnout in Texas Might Make GOP Nervous

Democrats haven't won a statewide race in Texas for more than 30 years, but turnout ahead of the 2026 midterms might be making Republicans nervous. In the first week of voting, Democratic primary ballots have outpaced Republican ones—665,664 to 593,692—pushing total turnout past 1.25 million, higher than the comparable point in both 2020 and 2024, when presidential races usually swell participation, the Texas Tribune reports. Party officials point to surging numbers in Harris County and in swingy Tarrant County, where Democrat Taylor Rehmet recently flipped a Trump-friendly state Senate district in a 14-point win.

Analysts credit a hotly contested Democratic US Senate primary between Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico, plus fierce opposition to President Trump among Democrats, for the spike. Republican strategists counter that the enthusiasm gap may narrow by November in a state that still tilts red, noting that GOP primary turnout is also running ahead of past midterms and even 2020's primary pace.

• "I would tell Democrats that they have every reason to feel optimistic, but that optimism should be interpreted as just meaning that they have a chance," Jeffrey Engle, director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University, tells the Tribune. "Anyone who thinks that Democrats have a cakewalk to a blue wave is deluding themselves." Engle notes that primaries draw "the most enthusiastic voters, but by definition, the most enthusiastic voters are a small group."

Engle says "Republican apathy" could be the most "telling factor" in November. Democratic turnout is also up significantly in Arkansas and North Carolina, CNN reports. In North Carolina, Democratic turnout in the Senate primary is up 50% from the same point in 2022 and around 55% of unaffiliated voters voted in the Democratic primary, up from 36% in 2022.

• Trump, meanwhile, is traveling to Texas on Friday for his first post-State of the Union trip, the AP reports. Trump hasn't endorsed a candidate in the state's hard-fought Republican Senate primary. All three candidates, Sen. John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and US Rep. Wesley Hunt, have been playing up their ties to Trump ahead of the Tuesday vote.