In Cuba, 'It's Never Been as Bad as It Is Now'

Cuba's leadership is confronting an economic unraveling that longtime residents and economists say is without precedent since the island nation's revolution in the 1950s. Power outages of up to 20 hours a day, empty ration stores, and waits for gasoline that stretch for months have become routine. "It's never been as bad as it is now, because many factors have come together," Havana economist Omar Everleny Perez tells the New York Times. One resident described 15-hour blackouts that leave her terrified that scarce food will spoil: "We don't even know how we're going to get by anymore."

US sanctions and the long-standing embargo have tightened in recent years, and the Trump administration's military intervention in Venezuela—culminating in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and purported US control over Venezuelan oil—has sharply reduced fuel shipments to the island. Deliveries that once reached about 90,000 barrels a day under former Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez fell to roughly 35,000 in late 2025, crippling power generation and key industries like nickel production. "If oil supply were to cease entirely, the Cuban economy would grind to a halt," Pavel Vidal, an economics instructor at Colombia's Javeriana University, tells NBC News.

Tourism, another pillar of the economy, has stalled at about half its prepandemic level. President Miguel Diaz-Canel acknowledges a contracting economy, soaring inflation, and failure to meet food-ration targets, calling the effort to restore stability "a concrete battle" to ensure wages cover food, blackouts end, and basic services function, per the Times. About a third of the population relies on money from abroad, while another third, especially retirees, is considered to be in poverty.

Experts say US policy has worsened Cuba's predicament, but they argue that domestic mismanagement and restrictive rules for private companies are also central to the downturn. Some officials are now openly pushing for deeper reforms. Meanwhile, the economic strain has helped drive an exodus of roughly 2.75 million people since 2020. "The domestic economy is in a free fall," says economist Ricardo Torres. "It is really bleak and desperate," Cuba expert Ted Henken tells the Wall Street Journal. "Hope is gone, and people are desperate to get out."