Russia 'Likely' Shot Down Passenger Jet

Investigators are still trying to figure out why an Azerbaijani passenger plane crashed on Christmas Day, and accusations are percolating that Russia is responsible. The details:

• The aviation security firm Osprey Solutions has warned airlines operating in the same region that Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 "was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system," reports the Wall Street Journal. The crash killed 38, while 29 survived.
• The plane first reported trouble in a region where Russia's air-defense has shot down Ukrainian drones, the Journal notes. It was en route from Azerbaijan to the Russian city of Grozny, and it crashed near the Kazakh town of Aktau on the Caspian sea.

• "Video of the wreckage and the circumstances around the airspace security environment in southwest Russia indicates the possibility the aircraft was hit by some form of antiaircraft fire," says Osprey's Matt Borie. That includes what appear to be shrapnel holes in the plane's tail.
• A Kremlin spokesman says "it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict," per the AP. Authorities on Wednesday also raised the possibility of a bird strike. Answers may come when the plane's black box, which has been recovered, is analyzed.
• Ukraine is not waiting to blame Russia, however. Security official Andriy Kovalenko tweeted that the jet "was shot down by a Russian air-defense system," adding that Moscow should have "closed the airspace over Grozny but failed to do so." Kovalenko also cited "punctured air vests" on some of those killed, suggesting shrapnel, per the Guardian.