Assad Is Out. Now What?

The fall of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria is expected to bring about a fundamental shift in the balance of power in the Mideast. But exactly how that will play out is still in flux. Coverage:

• Possible vacuum: The Wall Street Journal reports that the speed with which the government collapsed—10 days—has raised fears of a "dangerous vacuum" in a nation that plays a vital role in the Mideast despite its relatively small size. The main rebel faction behind this latest military push is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, but other rebel groups operate in various regions of the country.
• Russia, Iran: In some ways, Assad's fate was sealed by the wars in Ukraine and Lebanon, notes the Journal. His regime has for years been propped by Russia and Iran, but both nations have withdrawn military resources for those wars. (Iran backs Hezbollah in Lebanon.) Russia and Iran also evacuated personnel from Syria in recent days, rather than helping Assad fend off the assault.

• Broad strokes: A New York Times analysis says "the 'axis of resistance' that Iran has formed with its militant allies in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Syria, Iraq and Yemen would be weakened" now that Assad is out. "Israel and its Arab allies would be strengthened." Israel, though, is wary of an even more extremist government replacing Assad. HTS once was affiliated with al-Qaeda but split several years ago and is seen as more moderate.
• A blow to Iran: A BBC analysis sees Iran in particular as suffering a "significant blow" with Assad gone. For one thing, Tehran had been able to ship weapons across Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. "For Iran, Syria has been the backbone of our regional presence," an expert on Iran's proxy militant groups tells the Times. "Everything that Iran sent to the region went through Syria. It is now extremely difficult to keep these channels open," adds Hassan Shemshadi.
• Turkey's win: The BBC also notes that most observers think the military campaign by HTS could not have happened without the blessing of Turkey, and the Journal notes that Turkey "stands to gain significant sway in Syria" in all of this. At least 3 million refugees from Syria have fled across the border to Turkey amid Syria's civil war.
• The US: The White House has not issued a statement except to say it is monitoring developments, per the AP. The US, which still labels HTS a terrorist organization, supports a different rebel group, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

(More Syria stories.)