Control of the House 'Rests on a Knife's Edge'

Election forecasters predict narrow majorities for either party
By Arden Dier,  Newser Staff
Posted Nov 5, 2024 7:10 AM CST
Control of the House 'Rests on a Knife's Edge'
Election day worker Sean Vander Waal prepares to open a polling place,Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Dearborn, Mich.   (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

It's Election Day and an especially notable one: "The candidates and their supporters are describing it as the most important election of their lifetimes, with democracy and the American way of life at stake," per the Guardian. Tens of millions of people have already voted in-person or by mail, but many more will head to the polls today. Here's what to know as we look at the House of Representatives:

  • Everybody's up for election: All 435 seats are up for grabs, but the battle for control "rests on a knife's edge, with a historically small universe of competitive races poised to determine the chamber's majority," per CNN, which highlights 10 races to watch. ABC News focuses in on five races in Virginia, New York, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Alaska.

  • It'll be close: A narrow majority for either party is likely. Republicans are looking to expand their majority, while Democrats, stressing the "dysfunction" that came under Republican leadership, hope to gain four seats to flip the House and install Rep. Hakeem Jeffries as the first Black speaker.
  • Predictions: The final ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball, an election forecaster, show "218 seats Safe, Likely, or Leaning Democratic, and 217 Safe, Likely, or Leaning Republican." FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a slight edge with a 51% chance of taking the House, while the Hill gives Republicans a 52% chance.
  • If Vice President Kamala Harris wins: Democrats have voiced concerns about how Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson might respond to a Harris victory as he voted against certifying President Biden's victory after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol. He previously said he would "follow the Constitution," per the Guardian.
(More Election 2024 stories.)

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