In the Betting World, a 'Mystery' Over Pro-Trump Wagers

The self-proclaimed "world's largest prediction market" is going big on a Donald Trump win this election cycle, based on what the Wall Street Journal calls a "mystery $30 million wave of pro-Trump bets" that have proliferated in recent days. The paper reports that at the start of this month, bettors on the crypto-based, Peter Thiel-funded Polymarket had the former president and Vice President Kamala Harris in a dead heat, in terms of their respective chances of winning the 2024 election. As of Thursday, that had shifted significantly in Trump's favor, with a 62% chance of winning to Harris' 38% (Forbes explains what betting market numbers mean).

• MAGA excitement: The news has fired up Trump world, with even Elon Musk gushing about the Polymarket arc. "Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line," he wrote on X on Oct. 6, though his site's own Community Notes pointed out on his tweet that there's "no evidence" betting markets are more accurate than polling, and that other betting markets have placed Harris ahead. (The Journal notes that "prediction markets have a mixed record of forecasting election results.")

• Just an illusion? The paper also reports that the recent surge could simply be a "mirage," thanks to just four Polymarket accounts—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—that are behind the $30 million infusion. Although it's possible that someone is just really bullish on a Trump win and wants to take home some big bucks, some are suspicious that the bets could be "an influence campaign designed to fuel social-media buzz for the former president." "If I were trying to manipulate a market, this is exactly how I would do it," economist Rajiv Sethi tells the Journal.
• Repercussions: One veteran investor says if there is manipulation involved, and the betting markets do keep putting Trump ahead, it could help boost his camp if he loses the election and tries to say the election was stolen from him. But it's also "unclear whether that would help Trump by making him (look) successful, or energize Kamala supporters who are afraid that the markets are showing her as an underdog," betting expert and American University history professor Laura Beers tells Newsweek.
• Who's behind the bets? There may not be four separate parties making those wagers, all funded via deposits from the Kraken crypto exchange. "There's strong reason to believe they are the same entity," Miguel Morel, CEO of blockchain analysis firm Arkham Intelligence, said after reviewing the accounts.

(More Polymarket stories.)