Israel Has 'Essentially 2 Paths' After Death of Hamas Leader

Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader Americans officials described as the "chief obstacle" to Gaza ceasefire talks, is dead, and analysts say Israel's leaders have a big decision to make. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a chance to "declare victory" and start winding down the war, the Wall Street Journal reports, but hardliners are urging him to fight on. "It is time to increase the military pressure and step on the neck of the terrorist organization, until its complete defeat." Itamir Ben-Gvir, the country's far-right national security minister, said in a statement after authorities confirmed that Sinwar had been killed by Israeli troops in Gaza.

• "Two paths." Shira Efron, director of policy research at the Israel Policy Forum, tells the Washington Post that there are "essentially two paths Israel can take"—choosing to continue the offensive on the grounds that Hamas is "on the verge of complete destruction," or seizing the "opportunity to take the win." "This is the ultimate win—the ladder we needed to climb down and end the war, get back the hostages," he says.

• Group may get "more pragmatic leadership." Analysts says new Hamas leadership might be more willing to accept compromises to ensure the group survives in some form. Ibrahim Dalalsha, director of the Horizon Center research group in the West Bank, tells the New York Times that "weakened, more pragmatic leadership" might be ready to hand over power to other Palestinian authorities and accept temporary Israeli occupation of parts of Gaza. "They won't say: 'Yes, we'll do whatever you want, Mr. Netanyahu,'" Dalalsha says. "But for the sake of their own physical survival, they may make more compromises than the man who initiated the whole war."
• Complications. The Journal notes that the path to a peace deal could be complicated because the "killing of so many Hamas leaders also could make it harder to find anyone with the authority to negotiate and uphold a deal." An Arab official close to peace negotiations tells the Post that "there's very little clarity as to what's left of Hamas. Nobody knows who's next in line." The Times of Israel reports that "divided geographically for almost a year, Hamas could devolve into militias run by local commanders, each holding several hostages and offering their own set of demands."

• Optimism. President Biden was among the leaders expressing optimism Thursday that Sinwar's death could lead to a peace deal and "a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike." Sinwar "was an insurmountable obstacle to achieving all of those goals," the president said, per the Post.
• Successor "can only be less hardline." Adrian Blomfield at the Telegraph notes that Sinwar was considered an extremist even by Hamas standards. "Such a man was never likely to compromise, an obduracy that only increased in recent months, according to US intelligence assessments, because he believed that Israel would kill him whatever he did," he writes. "Given who Sinwar was, whoever succeeds him can only be less hardline, less in the pocket of Iran, and more open to compromise."

(More Yahya Sinwar stories.)