Democrats Are Happy, but Harris Is Still the Underdog

There's a lot of excitement among Democrats surrounding Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign for president. But even with a huge fundraising haul and the apparent support of Gen Z, the likely Democratic nominee is the clear underdog, writes Vox political correspondent Andrew Prokop. Pouring cold water on the newfound enthusiasm, Prokop notes polling data "currently shows Harris on track to lose" to former President Trump. "Maybe those polls aren't worth much since voters haven't truly gotten to know Harris. Maybe she'll wage a smart, vigorous campaign and win them over," he writes. "But Harris also has some very real weaknesses as a candidate that could turn things the other way."

"Typically, when a new nominee runs for president, they get to offer idealistic promises of change and break with how the incumbent has been doing things in areas where the public wants change," Prokop writes. But Harris is "burdened by what has been. And the public is not happy with how things have been under Biden." Indeed, polls suggest voters are troubled by the handling of the economy, immigration, and foreign policy. And if Harris criticizes the handling of any issue in particular, it "would raise the question of why she didn't criticize it earlier," Prokop notes.

According to Prokop, Harris' poor approval numbers—"38% approval, 50% disapproval in FiveThirtyEight's average"—are likely tied to her role in the current administration. Then there's her track record, including a 2020 presidential campaign that was "chock-full of public missteps and reports of behind-the-scenes chaos." Of course, "Trump has his own serious weaknesses," Prokop adds, noting the success of Harris' campaign will ultimately come down to how well she can speak to swing-state and non-college voters—in other words, those outside the Democratic Party's "donor and staffer class." Read the full piece here. (Others feel Democrats are shooting themselves in the foot by rallying around Harris too soon.)