Poll Suggests RFK Jr. Could Swing Race for Biden

When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced last week that he was dropping out of the Democratic race to run for president as an independent, some analysts said his run could be more of a problem for President Biden than former President Trump. The latest NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll, however, suggests that Kennedy could take enough votes away from Trump to ensure a Biden victory. The poll put Biden at 49% and Trump at 46% in a hypothetical head-to-head. But when pollsters put Kennedy in the mix, Biden's lead grew to 7 points, with the president at 44%, Trump at 37%, and Kennedy at 16%.

Pollsters found that independent voters split almost evenly among the three candidates, while Kennedy's inclusion caused Biden's support to dip by 5% among Democrats and Trump's by 10% among Republicans. "Although it's always tricky to assess the impact of a third-party candidate, right now Kennedy alters the equation in Biden's favor," says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "What this does speak to, however, is that about one in six voters are looking for another option, especially independents." Multiple other polls have found that Kennedy has a higher approval rating among Republicans than Democrats, Axios reports. (More Election 2024 stories.)