Politics / Senate Senate Seats Most Likely to Flip (Only 1 to GOP) New Dems from VA, NM, CO likely By Jonas Oransky, Newser Staff Posted Jun 13, 2008 1:51 PM CDT Copied Former governor Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H. listens to her Republican rival U.S. Rep. John Sununu . (AP Photo/Jim Cole, File) The GOP's best case-scenario sees the party losing only three Senate seats this fall. Washington Post blogger Chris Cillizza runs down the races most likely to flip a vote: Mississippi: Trent Lott replacement Roger Wicker has never been elected statewide, and Barack Obama's coattails should draw in the large black population. Minnesota: Al Franken remains promising, but he's no sure thing, thanks to back taxes and Playboy bylines. North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole’s ties to President Bush aren't helping here. Louisiana: The chances of only vulnerable Democrat, Mary Landrieu, may rise or fall on the turnout for Obama. Oregon: An Independent Party candidate has dropped his bid, clearing the way for Jeff Merkley. For the scoop on the top five, click the link below. (More Senate stories.) Report an error